VEND consulting is working intensively on the topic of renewable energy. VEND has gained solid knowledge in this business by regularly executing market studies and through working on many projects.
In the current study, which was published at the beginning of this year, 113 companies working on production, distribution and services in the photovoltaic sector were surveyed about current trends and developments. In addition, used technologies and preferences of customers were monitored.
A comparison of the different technologies shows that thin-film technology has by far the highest market potential over the next three years (scale in use: declining, stagnating, growing and sharply growing). Following with some distance are polymer and concentrated solar power modules. Those are followed by biological based cells and mono crystalline solar modules which were put at the end of the scale “growing”. Generally speaking, the results show that the PV-industry expects further growth. This growth will not be as significantly as shown in the interviews from 2008. “The reason for this is surely to be found in the current situation. Financing for building and expansion of production capacities for new technologies in Germany is not ensured by the banks”, says Oliver Vollrath, consultant at VEND consulting and author of this study.
In addition to analyzing the development of the different technologies, the aim was to forecast the behavior of customers. For this purpose, thin- and normal film modules, façade and roof systems as well as in-the-roof and on-the-roof systems were compared. In the opinion of the participants rather the normal-layer than the thin-layer modules are bought in Germany. An even more clear preference is expressed for roof-systems. According to the survey, façade systems are hardly bought. A similarly clear preference is becoming obvious when comparing in-the-roof and on-the-roof-systems. On-the-roof-systems are currently preferred by customers. A forecast of customer preferences in three years expects preferences to shift. Thin-film will take over more and more parts of the market share of the mono- and polychristaline technology. The demand will shift a little bit from roof- to façade-systems, where in the future roof-system installations will be preferred.
One more clear positive development is to be seen when assessing the in-roof and on-roof-solutions. The interviewees think that in three years customers will buy more in-the-roof than on-the-roof-systems.
The interview of the experts shows that thin-film-modules will become of much more interest for customers in the following years than the normal-film-modules.
In addition to thin-film-modules experts generally expect potential for façade and in-the-roof-solutions. It is a fact that the development of these two systems moves on slowly. Nevertheless, especially in-roof-systems shouldn’t be neglected.
Especially the aesthetic advantage will become an important selling proposition as the cost difference will become smaller and smaller.