The solar industry experienced high growth rates in the last years. However, the financial crisis diminishes this growth slightly. In the opinion of experts, the significance of photovoltaic as an energy source will grow. This is also demonstrated by the recent study “The German Photovoltaic Market 2009/2010” undertaken by VEND consulting and published at the beginning of the year. In total, 113 companies of the areas of production, trade and service providers in the photovoltaic sector were surveyed about current trends and developments in the sector.
The respondents expect an annual growth of about 4.8% until 2013 concerning newly installed power in Germany. A new capacity of almost 2000 mwp is expected for 2010. Compared to other studies and forecasts, this is a carful estimation. This might be due to the unsecure conditions at the point of the survey (May until July 2009). The financial crisis lead to declining trust of investors and the resulting difficulties for raising capital contribute to the cautious estimation of market development. There are no official figures until now, but one can expect an increase of 3.000 to 4.000 megawatt in 2009 and also the estimates for 2010 are positive. ‘Detailed forecasts for 2010 are difficult. No one can foresee the consequences of the shortened feed-in tariffs, yet. However, it is certain that the closing-sale mood still persists’, says Oliver Vollrath, Consultant at VEND consulting and co-author of the study.
Besides photovoltaic, solar heat is also advancing fast. Although mega projects, like Derstec, are used as solar heat power plants, only 10% of respondents expect solar heat to replace photovoltaic as main technology. Due to high maintenance costs, solar heat power plants need a certain minimum size and can only be operated in extreme sunny areas. In those circumstances, the technology has, however, some advantages compared to photovoltaic. Therefore, one can expect an increasing significance of solar heat, but a replacement of photovoltaic is very unlikely. Rather, solar heat and photovoltaic are complementary products in the end costumer area.
The study by VEND consulting demonstrates that the photovoltaic industry did not escape the financial crisis. It is, however, clear that the years ahead are, despite some setbacks, characterised by continuous growth. The crisis slowed growth down a little, but the triumphal procession of the photovoltaic industry did not stop – for now.